BEIJING: China achieved a historic milestone in 2024, with exports reaching a record high, according to state media reports on Monday. This remarkable growth comes amid the looming threat of new tariffs from US president-elect Donald Trump.
Exports proved to be a rare bright spot for China’s economy, offsetting challenges like sluggish domestic consumption and an ongoing property sector crisis. Total exports for 2024 surged to 25.45 trillion yuan ($3.47 trillion), marking a 7.1% year-on-year increase, state broadcaster CCTV reported.
Imports also grew, totaling 18.39 trillion yuan, a modest 2.3% rise compared to the previous year. The combined trade value climbed by 5%, hitting a record-breaking 43.85 trillion yuan.
December Trade Figures Exceed Expectations
December exports rose 10.7% year-on-year, surpassing economists’ expectations of a 7.5% increase, according to a Bloomberg survey. Imports in December also grew by 1%, outperforming forecasts of a 1% decline.
Analysts attribute the strong export performance to businesses stockpiling goods in anticipation of stricter US trade policies under Trump’s administration.
The Impact of Looming US Tariffs
During his first term, Trump imposed significant tariffs on Chinese goods, and he has signaled intentions to introduce even steeper levies, with a proposed 60% tariff on all Chinese imports. These measures are set to take effect as Trump assumes office next week.
Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, highlighted the potential consequences of such tariffs:
- Export volumes could decline by approximately 3%.
- China’s GDP growth may be reduced by 0.5%.
Huang noted that while exports are expected to remain resilient in the short term, they face significant headwinds if these new tariffs are implemented.
Broader Implications for China’s Economy
China’s record trade figures underscore its pivotal role in global commerce, but they also highlight vulnerabilities to external pressures. The combination of robust export growth and looming trade barriers will test the resilience of the Chinese economy in 2025.
With global economic uncertainties and the threat of a renewed trade war on the horizon, the coming months will be crucial for China as it navigates challenges to maintain its position as a global export powerhouse.