Ashish Chauhan, a 29-year-old finance professional from India, has big dreams. He aspires to pursue an MBA at an American university next year—a goal he describes as “stamped in his brain.” However, as he navigates the turbulent waters of U.S. immigration policy under President-elect Donald Trump, he feels increasingly conflicted about his future in the United States.
The H-1B visa program, designed to bring skilled foreign workers to the U.S., is facing heightened scrutiny. Critics argue that it undercuts American workers, while supporters, including tech billionaire Elon Musk, praise it for attracting global talent. Notably, Indian nationals dominate the H-1B program, receiving 72% of visas issued, with Chinese citizens making up 12%. In 2023, a significant portion of H-1B visa holders worked in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, particularly in computer-related fields, earning a median annual salary of $118,000.
The concerns surrounding the H-1B visa program tie into broader immigration debates. According to a Pew Research report, U.S. immigration increased by 1.6 million in 2023—the largest jump in over 20 years. Immigrants now account for more than 14% of the U.S. population, the highest percentage since 1910. Indians represent the second-largest immigrant group in the country, following Mexicans. Many Americans fear that this influx could harm job prospects or hinder assimilation.
Moreover, India has become the leading source of international students in the U.S., with a record 331,602 Indian students enrolled for the 2023-2024 academic year, according to the latest Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. Many of these students rely on loans, making any potential visa freeze a dire threat to their families’ financial stability.
Chauhan expresses concern that the resistance to H-1B visas could breed animosity towards Indians in the U.S. “But I can’t park my ambitions and wait for the volatility to subside because it’s been like this for years now,” he states.
During Trump’s first term, efforts to restrict the H-1B program peaked. In 2017, he signed an executive order that increased scrutiny of applications and fraud detection, leading to rejection rates soaring to 24% in 2018 compared to 5-8% under President Obama and 2-4% under President Biden. While the total number of approved H-1B applicants remained stable under Biden, the uncertainty surrounding future policies persists.
Stephen Yale-Loehr, an immigration scholar at Cornell Law School, comments, “The first Trump administration tightened H-1B visas by increasing denial rates and slowing processing times, making it harder for people to get visas in time. It is unclear whether that will happen again in the second Trump administration.” The ongoing debate is intensified by differing opinions within the administration—some, like Musk, advocate for preserving the H-1B program, while others push for stricter immigration controls.
Indians have a long-standing relationship with the H-1B visa, which has significantly contributed to the rise of Indian-Americans as one of the most educated and highest-earning groups in the U.S. Researchers have noted that new Indian immigrants often differ from earlier arrivals in terms of language and community, with a growing presence of Hindi, Tamil, and Telugu speakers. This program has helped reshape the landscape of Indian-American communities, shifting from traditional hubs in New York and Michigan to larger clusters in California and New Jersey.
For many aspiring immigrants like Chauhan, the H-1B visa offers a pathway to higher salaries and improved living standards. “The fascination with H-1Bs is directly tied to the wage gap between India and the U.S. for the same engineering roles,” he explains.
Despite its appeal, not everyone supports the H-1B program. Many see it as a temporary step towards permanent residency, with holders typically sponsored by employers for green cards. Currently, over a million Indians, including dependents, are waiting in employment-based green card categories, leading to frustrations over long processing times. “Getting a green card means signing up for an endless wait of 20-30 years,” says Atal Agarwal, who helps individuals find visa options globally.
Agarwal, who moved to the U.S. in 2017, found the H-1B process manageable but faced challenges in securing a green card. “It’s an unstable situation. Your employer has to sponsor you, and since the pathway to a green card is so long, you are basically tied to them. If you lose your job, you only get 60 days to find a new one.”
This complex interplay of H-1B visas and immigration issues has made the program a sensitive topic. Shivendra Singh, vice president of global trade development at Nasscom, states, “H-1B is a high-skilled worker mobility visa. It is not an immigration visa, but it gets clubbed with immigration and illegal immigration and becomes a sensitive issue.”
As the landscape of U.S. immigration continues to evolve, the dreams of individuals like Ashish Chauhan hang in the balance, caught between ambition and uncertainty in a changing political climate.