The United Nations and global space agencies are closely tracking an asteroid, 2024 YR4, that has a small chance of colliding with Earth. While experts stress that there is no immediate danger, astronomers are keeping a close watch to refine their calculations.
A Small Risk, But No Panic
The European Space Agency (ESA) has estimated that YR4 has a 98.7% chance of safely passing Earth on December 22, 2032. However, a 1.3% impact probability means scientists cannot yet rule out a collision.
Dr. Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society reassured the public:
“There is no need for alarm. Historically, these risks tend to disappear as we refine calculations.”
Still, he emphasized the need for continuous monitoring and proper resources for astronomers.
How Dangerous is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024. Initial estimates suggest it is between 40 and 90 meters across. If it were to strike Earth, it could cause destruction equivalent to a nuclear explosion, especially if it hits a populated area.
However, the chances of YR4 impacting an ocean or an uninhabited region are much higher than a direct hit on a city. For now, scientists say it’s too early to determine a possible impact location.
How Are Scientists Tracking YR4?
Since early January, astronomers have been using telescopes to measure YR4’s size and trajectory more accurately. The asteroid is currently rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
- The Torino Scale ranks asteroid threats from 0 to 10.
- A Level 3 asteroid warrants attention but is far from a guaranteed impact.
- A collision becomes a serious concern only at levels 8, 9, or 10.
History shows that initial impact risks often drop to zero with better observations. This happened in 2004 with asteroid Apophis, which was once thought to have a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029—but later calculations ruled out any threat.
What Happens If the Risk Persists?
When an asteroid wider than 50 meters has a more than 1% chance of impact, global space agencies take precautionary steps. Two UN-backed organizations are responsible for monitoring and planning a response:
- International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) – Led by NASA, it gathers data on potential threats.
- Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) – Chaired by the ESA, it evaluates possible actions.
The SMPAG is meeting this week to discuss YR4. While immediate action is not needed yet, they are closely monitoring the situation. Another decision-making meeting is planned for April or May, unless new data changes the threat level.
Can We Stop an Asteroid?
If future observations confirm a risk, scientists could attempt to deflect the asteroid. This method was successfully tested in 2022 when NASA’s DART mission deliberately crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid, slightly altering its path.
Dr. Massey noted:
“NASA’s DART mission showed we can divert an asteroid—but only if we detect it early enough.”
Will YR4 Remain a Concern?
The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in a straight line, making its exact trajectory harder to predict. Over the next few months, it will fade from view, limiting further observations.
ESA stated:
“If we cannot entirely rule out a 2032 impact before YR4 fades, it will stay on our risk list until it is observable again in 2028.”
For now, astronomers remain watchful, but there is no immediate reason to worry. With continued tracking, scientists expect to refine their calculations and likely rule out a collision altogether.
Final Thoughts
While asteroid 2024 YR4 has sparked interest, history suggests that these impact risks often disappear with more precise data. Space agencies worldwide are keeping a close eye, ensuring that Earth remains safe.
